What will it be? Unexpected turn-over in the West Wing? A surprise trade or foreign policy announcement?
Hard to tell what the next big, market moving announcement will be, what the next “shoe to drop” is.
It probably won’t be an announcement from the Fed. Expectations are for Jerome Powell to be a “steady hand” and to not surprise the market. He will chair his first FOMC meeting this week, with the announcement coming out Wednesday, 3/21/18 at 2:00 PM EST. If there is a surprise announcement, watch out! The response will be dramatic.
Meanwhile, the expectation of breaking news will dominate the market. Stay tuned and be careful!
Dean
Dean, you mentioned the possibility (very real) that some sudden unexpected word might come from the white house. Seems to me that in a significant case, that could affect the market but I don’t hear you giving that sort of thing much credence. (Technician, not a fundamentalist, right?)
Do you figure that the market might bump and then regain equilibrium? If I recall correctly, even after the 9/11 attacks, the market was not too far away from where it was, after a few weeks.
How do we account for the unexpected event?
Lex, great question.
I account for unexpected moves by;
A) using strict Risk Management to limit losses on individual trades
B) having a variety of positions, in different sectors, and being long and short, so that some of the positions will have dramatic gains, even if some get stopped out.
Based on fundamentals, who knows what could happen, and what would be the next tweet..! Or guess about an increase Wednesday in interest rates. But most wisely, our friend Elliott (Elliott waves, technical analysis) suggests that wave 3 down already started (confirmed if Dow goes below 24 234 (S&P below 2646)). If so, Dow’s minimum target is 22 575 (S&P 2459). Let’s see.