What was weird? The overnight market open was a little weird. I gave the French spelling of it, because of course, this is a reaction to the French Presidential election.

The first weird thing is that this is the first major election in recent memory that the polls got right. Remember Brexit and the US Presidential election…

And, it was weird because all the commentators predicted the markets would go sharply up if Monsieur Marcon was elected. The idea was that this candidate represented more stability and the opposing candidate represented quite a bit of the unknown.

The market did pop up a bit at the overnight open, but then gave it back and is currently down a little. I think that is signaling that we can expect some volatility in the short term and that it is very hard to predict a longer-term market view at this time.

The S&P 500 is a few ticks away from putting in an all-time high. If it does this week, then we likely can expect some more highs to follow. If, however, it reverses down from here, then we probably have a bit of a pullback forming. Unfortunately, neither outcome is that clear and that is just the reality. And I trade based on reality, not speculation, so I am not trading the indexes at this time. There are other sectors that do have clarity and direction and that is where I am focused.

It will not be boring! If anything changes in the short-term, I will send an update during the week.

Otherwise, trade safe, use risk control and discipline in your trading and stay tuned.


Dean Jenkins